How Californians are voting on Prop 22

In September 2019, California signed the California Assembly Bill 5 (AB5), a new law that requires companies like Uber and Lyft to reclassify their drivers from independent contractors to full-time employees. The law went into effect January 1, 2020 and by August, California Superior Court Judge Ethan Schulman ordered the companies to adhere to the law. 

Uber’s CEO, Dara Khosrowshahi, thinks there is a better alternative that is more in-line with what their drivers want — flexibility. A survey conducted by Edelman Intelligence, suggests that 2 / 3 drivers would stop driving if that flexibility was no longer an available option. 

The survey, commissioned by Uber, interviewed 718 Californian app-based rideshare and food delivery drivers who have driven with any rideshare or food delivery app within the past year. Data was collected between May 19 and June 1, 2020. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percentage points.

The tech companies’ response to AB5 is Prop22 and by November 3rd, voters will have cast their vote to either support or oppose the proposition. 

A “yes” vote supports this ballot initiative to define app-based transportation (rideshare) and delivery drivers as independent contractors and adopt labor and wage policies specific to app-based drivers and companies.

A “no” vote opposes this ballot initiative, meaning California Assembly Bill 5 (2019) could be used to decide whether app-based drivers are employees or independent contractors.

At TapResearch, we wanted to know what Californian residents and voters are thinking about Prop22 and how they plan to vote on the issue. So we turned to our Audience Network and conducted a simple three question survey about the issue to California residents only. Over 1,000 residents complete the survey, ages 18-64, all genders. Data was collected between October 12-13, 2020. 

Here’s what we learned. 

While 23% (232) of respondents said they were neutral on the Prop, over 38% (388) said they are likely or extremely likely to vote “YES”. 

But, when cross-tabbed against the 578 likely voters polled on the question, over 54% (or 313) suggested that they are likely or extremely likely to vote yes on Prop22. 

The “Yes” support among all respondents by political view is quite diverse and the data suggests most residents are leaning in Uber’s favor.

And when drilling into the 578 likely voters Prop22 support by political view, the data suggest a much stronger favor on the “yes” vote. 

Overall, this is a relatively small sample size of likely voters (578) in California intended to quickly (sub 48 hours) grab the pulse of the vote. Since running this survey, media ad spending has increased as the election nears on both sides of the table. Perhaps we’ll run a follow up survey closer to election day but ultimately, no matter what the survey data says here, we won’t know the result until the American voters cast their ballots. [Vote!]

Methodology
How did we get this data?

TapResearch conducted this survey across the Audience Network of random mobile devices. The survey was conducted on October 13, 2020 to 1,000 residents in California. 

Respondents were primed with a simple explanation of California’s Proposition 22 before entering the survey. Thanks to the folks at Ballotpedia

All 1,000 survey responses were collected through the TapResearch Audience Network in under 48 hours. 

Example mobile app experience:

If you’re a marketer, researcher, journalist or curious individual who would like to learn how to run a similar survey with TapResearch shoot me a note michael@tapresearch.com

58.5% of American voters believe the winner of the election should appoint the next supreme court justice, poll finds

On September 18, 2020, Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg passed away at age 87. Her death came just 46 days from the presidential election on November 3rd, 2020. Now, it has become highly debated if President Donald Trump or the winner of the election should fill the court’s vacancy. 

Despite a spike in coronavirus cases among government officials, the Senate Judiciary Committee is expected to hold four days of public hearings, beginning the week of October 12th to fill the Supreme Court Justice seat with Amy Coney Barrett

TapResearch wanted to understand U.S public opinion on who should fill the  Supreme Court vacancy. Our poll targeted 1,000 registered voters aged 18-64 with two disqualifying questions that establish a basic knowledge of the topic. The poll was launched 09/29/20 and completed in an hour with 642 responses. The full results can be found here. 

According to our poll, 34% of respondents do not know that Ruth Bader Ginsburg is a Supreme Court Justice and 35% of respondents do not know there are nine Supreme Court Justice positions. 

Our findings show that 58.5% of respondents believe the winner of the election should appoint the next supreme court justice.

“58.5% of Americans believe the winner of the election should appoint the next supreme court justice”

When we cross-compare the data by who Americans plan to vote for in the 2020 election, we see that 80.2% of Trump supporters think Trump should appoint the next Supreme Court Justice. On the other hand, 88% of Biden supporters think the next Supreme Court Justice should be appointed by the winner of the election.

A few big issues are at the forefront of American’s minds when it comes to filling this Supreme Court vacancy – Roe v. Wade and the Affordable Care Act. Therefore, we compared the respondent’s views on these topics to their view on who should fill the Supreme Court vacancy.

Our results show that 73.6% of respondents who support  Roe v. Wade think the winner of the election should fill the supreme court vacancy. Only 39% of respondents who support  Roe v. Wade believe Trump should appoint the next supreme court justice. 

Our poll shows that 78.7% of respondents who support the Affordable Care Act believe the winner of the election should fill the supreme court vacancy. With only 23.5% of respondents who support the Affordable Care Act want Trump should appoint the next supreme court justice.

Our result suggests that opinions on Roe v. Wade and the Affordable Care Act impact respondent’s views on who should fill the supreme court vacancy. Ultimately, a majority (58.5% of respondents) believe the winner of the election should appoint the next Supreme Court Justice, but the results are divided down political lines. 

About the Poll

TapResearch conducted this survey across its network of random mobile devices. The poll was conducted on September 29, 2020, with 642 respondents. 

If you’re a mobile marketer or decision-maker and would like to run a similar poll across the TapResearch mobile sample network please contact Michael Sprague at michael@tapresearch.com.

63.9% of American’s support for a candidate did not change as a result of the debate, poll finds

Last night, September 29th was the first 2020 presidential debate between Democrat candidate Joe Biden and Republican candidate Donald Trump. The debate last night amassed about 29 million total viewers. Many news outlets are calling the 90-minute Trump-Biden showdown chaotic and out of control, but what did American viewers think?

TapResearch wanted to gauge U.S public opinion on the candidate’s pre and post the debate. We surveyed 1,000 registered voters ages 18-64 who live in the United States. The full results of the pre-debate poll can be found here and the results of the post-debate poll can be found here. 

Here’s how we did it:

The pre-Presidential debate poll targeted 1,000 registered voters aged 18-64 with a single disqualifying question that asked if the respondent was planning to watch the debate. The poll was launched 09/29/20 at 4:45 pm PT and completed in an hour with 781 responses. 

The post-Presidential debate poll targeted 1,000 registered voters aged 18-64 with a single disqualifying question that asked if they watched the debate. The poll was launched  09/29/20 at 8:00 pm PT completed in an hour with 748 responses.

Only 22-25% of respondents in our polls did not or were not planning to watch the debates. Going into the debates 35.72% of respondents were confident Biden was going to win the debate compared to 24.84% of respondents who were confident that Trump was going to win the debate. 

Both our pre and post-debate survey showed that when deciding a “winner” of the debate coronavirus and the economy were the top issues on voter’s minds. 

When the data is broken down by who Americans plan to vote for in the 2020 election, 42% of Trump supporters listed the economy as the most important topic compared to only 12.59% of Biden supporters. 

Our poll suggested that the debate did not heavily sway voter’s support. 63.9% of respondents indicated that their support for a candidate did not change as a result of the debate. However, 9.36% of voters who were unsure changed to supporting Trump, and 15.37% of voters who were unsure changed to supporting Biden.

63.90% of voters indicated that their support for a candidate did not change as a result of the debate.

Both the pre and post-debate polls show that Trump supporters report themselves as “very likely” to vote at higher levels than Biden supporters. Approximately 75-76% of  Trump supporters indicated they are very likely to vote compared to 59-65% of Biden supporters.

About the Poll

TapResearch conducted this survey across its network of random mobile devices. The two polls were conducted on September 29, 2020, with 1,000 respondents each. 

If you’re a mobile marketer or decision-maker and would like to run a similar poll across the TapResearch mobile sample network please contact Michael Sprague at michael@tapresearch.com.

American’s opinions on the role of civil disobedience by athletes are divided down political lines, Poll finds

Professional athletes across America have been using their platforms to speak out publicly on racial unrest and protest against racismSparked by NBA player’s walkouts, civil disobedience in sports has become widely practiced by players.

Now, athletes from across the spectrum have been using their platforms to highlight civil unrest from NHL and  NASCAR allowing protests during the national anthem to Naomi Osaka, a tennis champion from Japan, wearing masks in memory of victims of police violence at the U.S Open. 

TapResearch wanted to gauge U.S public opinion on athlete’s protests and their impact on individual watching habits.  We surveyed 1,000 people ages 18-99 who live in the United States. The full results of this poll can be found here.

Our findings show that 56.22% of respondents believe it is “very acceptable” or “somewhat acceptable” for professional athletes to use their platform to speak out publicly about national issues.

When the data is broken down by who Americans plan to vote for in the 2020 election, 30.3% of Trump supporters think it’s “not at all acceptable” for professional athletes to use their platform to speak out publicly about national issues compared to 2.8% of Biden supporters.

30.3% of Trump supporters think it’s “not at all acceptable” for professional athletes to use their platform to speak out publicly about national issues compared to 2.8% of Biden supporters.

Our result suggests that younger generations like Gen Z and Millennials etc. (people aged 18-44)  feel that it is more important that athletes they support share their political views than it is for older generations like Baby Boomers and Silent (people aged 45-99). 

For instance, 63% of respondents aged 18-24  think it is “very important” or “somewhat important” that athletes they support share their political views compared to only 33% of respondents aged 55-64.

At the beginning of September, the highly anticipated NFL season started with racial injustice themes on display across the field. Many NFL players kneeled, locked arms, raised fists, or stayed off the field entirely during the national anthem as they opened their season. A year ago these player’s civil disobedience would not have been supported by the league like it has been in the recent weeks after an offseason marked by a global pandemic and civil unrest.  However, what is the U.S public support levels for these protests? 

Our poll suggests that feelings about NFL player’s protests are highly polarized among the U.S population with 29.2% of respondents strongly supporting and 27.7% strongly opposing. 

If we break it down by political affiliation we see that respondent’s opinions are divided down political lines. 49.97% of Biden supporters strongly support NFL player’s protests compared to 13.17% of Trump supporters inversely 52.1% of Trump supporters strongly oppose NFL player’s protests compared to 10.45% of Biden supporters.

If you apply these opinions into actions we see that the divide down political lines translates into the effect of player’s social activism on watching habits. 52.1% of Trump supporters plan to watch less sports and  34.79% of Biden supporters plan to watch more sports. 

Lastly, we asked respondents for their thoughts on if social activism in sports will be effective in helping achieve change in society. We found that 59.3% of respondents think that social activism in sports will be “very effective” or “somewhat effective” in creating change. 

Ultimately, our poll highlights a deep divide in opinions by political affiliation with Biden supporters supporting the merging of sports and social activism at higher levels than Trump supporters. 

About the Poll

TapResearch conducted this survey across its network of random mobile devices. The two polls were conducted on September 15, 2020, with 1,0012 respondents each. 

If you’re a marketer or decision-maker and would like to run a survey about your brand across the TapResearch audience network please contact Michael Sprague at michael@tapresearch.com.

[SURVEY] 45.8% of Americans believe that governments should enact laws to combat climate change

In the past few years, extreme weather events have become a daunting reality.  Many point to climate change as the main driver of recent extreme weather events like the wildfires in California and hurricane Laura in Louisiana

The debate on climate change within American society has become a contentious topic.  As extreme weather sweeps the nation, American’s perspective on climate change has grown to be a prevalent issue in the political arena.

With an upcoming election, TapResearch wanted to find out the U.S public opinion on extreme weather, global climate change, and the government’s role in creating environmental regulations. We surveyed 1,022 people ages 18-99 who live in the United States. The full results of this poll can be found here.

Our findings suggest that the majority of Americans – 67.3% – think climate change is happening. Only 16.3% do not believe in climate change.

When the data is broken down by who Americans plan to vote for in the 2020 election, 82% of Biden supporters believe climate change is happening compared to 52.9% of Trump supporters.

However, 30% of respondents think natural patterns contribute the most to climate change. Whereas,  56% attributed climate change to human activity.  If we look at these numbers by political affiliation 71.5% of Biden supporters think climate change is driven by human activity compared to 41.8% of Trump supporters.

A big discussion point in American politics today is the role the government should play in establishing protections against climate change. Approximately 45.8% of respondents believe that governments should enact laws to combat climate change. If we look at our data by voting plans for 2020 we see 63.9% of Biden supporters agree with enacting government climate laws compared to 30.6% of Trump supporters.

63.9% of Biden supporters agree with enacting government climate laws compared to 30.6% of Trump supporters.

Our research suggests respondent’s opinions on climate change are divided down political lines. Respondents who plan to vote for Biden believe in climate change and government climate policy intervention at higher levels than respondents who plan to vote for Trump.

 About the Poll
TapResearch conducted this survey across its network of random mobile devices. The survey was conducted on 08/28/20 with 1,022 respondents balanced to the U.S. Census.

TapResearch makes it radically easier to get powerful insights from any target audience. If you’d like access to the TapResearch Audience Network please contact michael@tapresearch.com

Poll Suggests Using Foreign-Owned Social Media Apps for Espionage is a Concern for US Adults

On Friday, President Trump signed an executive order giving the popular social media app TikTok an ultimatum: be acquired by a US company or risk being banned from the US. 

While there have been other foreign apps with potential national security issues in the past, none have been as popular or garnered as much media coverage as TikTok. The WSJ recently reported that TikTok tracked user data in a way that was banned by Google but ended the practice in November 2019. Although there were concerns that the collected user data could be used by the Chinese government for “blackmail and espionage,” TikTok recently released a statement contesting these accusations, saying:

“We have made clear that TikTok has never shared user data with the Chinese government, nor censored content at its request. In fact, we make our moderation guidelines and algorithm source code available in our Transparency Center, which is a level of accountability no peer company has committed to. We even expressed our willingness to pursue a full sale of the US business to an American company.” 

TapResearch polled adults across the US to see how the general public felt about the security of foreign-owned apps, such as TikTok. We surveyed 1,003 people ages 18-64 who live in the United States and the full results of this poll can be found here.

Our findings show that many people support banning apps developed by foreign companies, with 40% of respondents indicating that the US should ban all apps from countries that have an interest in spying on Americans and another 30% of respondents saying that the US should ban all foreign social media apps.

“Should the US ban all apps developed in foreign nations?”

Yes, only US-owned social media apps should be allowed for national security reasons (30%)

We should only ban apps from nations who have an interest in spying on Americans, such as Russia, China, etc. (40%)

No, we should not ban any apps (30%)

When the data is broken down by age group, there’s a trend towards more aggressive action by older adults compared to the young adult population. Among 18 to 20-year-olds, 35% of respondents said we should not ban any apps from the US app store, compared to only 18% of adults aged 55 to 64. 

While many respondents supported banning foreign-owned apps for national security reasons, the majority (77%) conceded that even US-based social media companies can be infiltrated by foreign governments to spy on Americans. 

Finally, we asked if the respondents agreed with President Trump’s executive order banning TikTok in the US. While the largest segment of respondents (31%) indicated that they agree because the Chinese government is using TikTok to spy on Americans, this data is divided across political lines. Respondents who indicated that they were conservative were more likely to agree with the President’s order, compared to the liberal groups, where a larger proportion did not agree with the executive order.

In the slightly and very liberal groups, 37% and 39% of respondents, respectively, said “No [I do not agree], US-owned social media companies are also not secure”, compared to 16% of the very conservative group. In the very conservative group, 71% of respondents agreed with the order banning TikTok either because the app was used by the Chinese government to spy on Americans or because it will put pressure on Microsoft to acquire TikTok’s US business. 

All in all, our poll suggests that many Americans are concerned about foreign-owned social media apps using their technology for espionage. The example of TikTok, however, shows that although being spied on is a concern, President Trump’s response is not overwhelmingly popular and opinion varies across the political spectrum.

About the Poll

TapResearch conducted this survey across its network of random mobile devices. The poll was conducted on August 7, 2020, with 1,003 respondents. 

If you’re a mobile marketer or decision maker and would like to run a similar poll across the TapResearch mobile sample network please contact Michael Sprague at michael@tapresearch.com.

TapResearch and PredictWise Partner to Predict TX-27 Special Congressional Election

TapResearch is always looking for cutting-edge use cases and partners to leverage our large scale audience engagement network to deliver better insights.  We are excited about expanding our efforts in political and opinion polling.

TX-27 has not been at the forefront of the news. Only few know that this minority-majority district holds special elections on Saturday, June 30th. TapResearch has teamed up with PredictWise to shed light on the political compass in this district, leveraging TapResearch’s innovative ways to collect data (randomly targeting cell-phone-level ad IDs) to quickly conduct polling at scale, as well as PredictWise’s proven methodology. And, while we find that the district is out of reach for Democratic challenger Eric Holguin, there is some hunger for progressive policies here.

Demographically, the district would be an obvious target for Democrats – 50% of residents are Hispanic in this district, consisting of Corpus Christi and Victoria up to Bastrop County near Austin and Wharton County near Houston. And, the most recent Representative, Republican Blake Farenthold, resigned in disgrace over sexual harassment allegations, on April 6, 2018. But, public polling has been non-existent here, and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), the organization with the goal to elect Democrats to Congress, has not exactly made this district a priority.

But, as a our new PredictWise/TapResearch poll shows (full data here): The district has hunger for some progressive policies, especially around taxation and gun regulation. First things first: Cook, the standard bearer of Congressional forecasting, has this district as solidly Republican. Our poll agrees: We have Republican candidate Michael Cloud far ahead in the two-party vote-share (65% to 31%). Nothing to see here for Democrats.

Figure1

But as opposed to other polling, our poll goes deeper than the traditional horse-race, and dissects likely voters in TX-27 on relevant political issues of the day. Take gun regulation for example: Over 50%, a clear majority of Texans residing in this district, support restricting the amount of bullets. And, that number is still above 50% for Republicans, with 71% of Democrats in support (Independents are less inclined to support legislation to restrict the amount of bullets in firearms, coming in at 30% support).

Figure3

On another issue front, Texans residing in this district are more mixed: immigration. While Dreamers enjoy support among likely voters – 64% of overall voters and a majority (54%) of Republicans support a pathway to citizenship in this district – only a small minority (9%) support an increase in the flow of legal immigration.

Figure4

On economic issues, however, Texans in this coastal district inhibit a strong desire for more progressive policies: 63% (and 59% of Republicans) support increasing taxes for households making more than $250,000 a year, and over 90% (Democrats and Republicans alike) support tax increases for big corporations. And, a majority of Texans in this district believe that unions are good for them – and likely would have taken issue with the recent Supreme Court ruling on this matter.

Figure5

Methodology:

Full data here. The insights presented here are a mix of PredictWise baseline data and a fresh set of respondents (N-200 likely voters, collected from 06/12 through 06/28) collected via TapResearch. Then estimates are created of public opinion using the most bleeding edge analytics of modeling and post-stratification (affectionately known as MRP+).